One week out: Top mid-term races that will decide who controls US Senate

US Capitol in Washington DC. (Photo/Reuters)

Voters across the United States are preparing to head to the polls on November 3 for high-stakes midterm elections that will determine Congress's composition and whether President Donald Trump can advance his legislative agenda during his final two years in office.

All 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats are contested.

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats against 45 Democrats and two allied independents, meaning Democrats require a net gain of four seats to secure a governing majority.

Competitive races across traditional Republican strongholds have put several seats in jeopardy, while Democrats also defend vulnerable terrain Trump carried in 2024.

Crucial Senate battlegrounds

Michigan

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican former congressman Mike Rogers for retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters's seat.

A Detroit News/WDIV-TV survey placed El-Sayed ahead 51.4 percent to 45.1 percent. If victorious, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim elected to the US Senate.

Detroit makes the country move. This city is powerful and beautiful. I'm proud to have spent my career here. I can't wait to continue to build it up. https://t.co/LD13WygNVD
— Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (@AbdulElSayed) October 28, 2026

Maine

Five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, former president of the Maine Senate.

A Marist poll showed Jackson edging Collins 49 percent to 47 percent, with Jackson questioning Collins’s centrist credentials in a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024.

Texas

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton confronts Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico for retiring Senator John Cornyn's seat.

A Univision/YouGov poll gave Talarico a 50 to 45 percent lead. Talarico has accused Paxton of corruption, whilst Paxton benefits from Trump's endorsement and funding from Elon Musk.

At left, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks in McKinney, Texas, and at right, Texas state Rep. James Talarico, after voting, in Austin, Texas. (Photo/AP)

Ohio

Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown seeks a Senate return against appointed Republican Senator Jon Husted.

Recent surveys from Fox News and InsiderAdvantage place Brown ahead by three to five percentage points, with Brown campaigning heavily against data centre development.

Alaska

Republican Senator Dan Sullivan trails former Democratic representative Mary Peltola in surveys under the state's ranked-choice system, as elevated fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict burden local households.

We’re in the final stretch of this campaign, and the energy is incredible! ???? From every corner of the state, Alaskans are coming together to put Alaska first. https://t.co/117aOYYVlH
— Mary Peltola (@MaryPeltola) October 29, 2026

Iowa

Republican Representative Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state lawmaker Josh Turek for the seat vacated by Republican Senator Joni Ernst, with surveys divided as agricultural communities react to fuel prices and tariffs.

Kansas

Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton in a contest drawing $71 million in advertising, with polls indicating a virtual tie in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932.

North Carolina

Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper holds significant polling leads over Republican Michael Whatley for retiring Senator Thom Tillis's seat, prompting national Republicans to withdraw campaign funding.

Other pivotal contests

In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff leads Republican Representative Mike Collins by eight percentage points in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey.

In New Hampshire, Democratic Representative Chris Pappas leads former Republican Senator John Sununu by six points.

Meanwhile, Nebraska features an uncommitted independent challenger, Dan Osborn, leading Republican Senator Pete Ricketts 46 percent to 45 percent, introducing a potential wild card into majority calculations.

Source: TRT