IUCN warns nearly all coral reef ecosystems face collapse within 50 years

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has warned that virtually all of the world’s shallow-water coral reef ecosystems face a high risk of collapse within the next 50 years, placing countries like the Maldives at the frontline of an escalating global crisis. 

The new global assessment, released on October 22, classifies 96 percent of tropical and subtropical coral reef ecosystems as Critically Endangered under the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems.

IUCN’s findings highlight heat stress driven by climate change as the most consistent and severe threat to reefs worldwide. The warning comes as Maldivian waters continue to experience recurring marine heatwaves and bleaching events, including major episodes in 1998, 2016, 2020 and 2023. 

Local experts have repeatedly noted that rising ocean temperatures are reducing recovery windows for reefs across the archipelago.

Coral reefs form the backbone of the Maldives’ economy and natural protection, supporting tourism, fisheries and coastal resilience. With more than 70 percent of islands relying on reefs as their primary barrier against erosion and storm surges, the IUCN assessment underscores the country’s extreme vulnerability. The organisation stressed that ambitious global emission cuts, stronger protection measures and investment in resilient coastal ecosystems are essential to give reefs a chance to survive.